Fidesz’ referendum initiative is expected to be successful. (…)The rate of ‘nay’ votes is expected  to come to around 20 percent, and will almost certainly remain under 30 percent.

The referendum on 9th of may was successful. Nationwide, there were a total of 3.3 million ‘yea’ and 640 thousand ‘nay’ votes. (more than 2.5 million „yea” votes was necessary for the successful plebiscite).

The rate of ‘nay’ votes remained under 20 percent in case of all the three questions. The ratio was 16 percent against elimination of the hospital care fee, and 18-18 percent against elimination of the medical contribution and the tuition con­tribution

A successful referendum may have an impact on the government's
commitment to the reforms.
Reforms and Risks Newsletter, 14th of February, 2008

Hungarian government is to announce that it will withdraw the law on health care reform, which would have established 20 new, competing health insurance funds planned to operate from April 2009. (…) Further U-turns are expected in other reforms. Political Capital projects that the tax reform plan will also be downgraded.

The Prime Minister announced that there is no opportunity for reforming the tax system or significantly reducing the tax rates on labour, as the room for manoeuvring has narrowed because of the referendum and the inconvenient international economical conditions
12th of March, 2008.

The parliament withdrawn the formerly passed health insurance bill, which allowed the partial privatisation of the health funds and the private investment in the health insurance system.

The Hungarian governing parties are suffering from the deepest coalition crisis since 2002. This is the first time that we see the crisis deep enough for a possible coalition break-up. (…) There have been calls for the removal of health minister Ágnes Horváth, which opportunity is cannot be excluded (…) The government reshuffle carries the risk that Ferenc Gyurcsány miscalculates the balance of power, loses supporters and becomes even weaker within the coalition.

On a party congress, the PM harshly criticized SZDSZ, announced sacking the healthcare minister Ágnes Horváth and promised the re-writing of the coalition contract. As a reaction, János Kóka, President of the SZDSZ and Gábor Fodor environmental minister declared together the SZDSZ’s decision to quit the coalition, and recall of the ministers and state secretaries. On the 30th of April, SZDSZ leaved the coalition and Gyurcsány Ferenc established a minority government.

While the government appears to have broken the MÁV-strike, further actions of trade unions are expected in the future.

Contradicting monetary and political interests are expected.The Central Bank (…) must be prepared for long-term inflationary pressure (e.g. due to food and oil price hikes). As recently it took firm steps to reach its inflation target, more rate increases are expected in the near future, which, in turn, place additional burdens on the government and may slow down growth. In the short term the government's objectives would best be served by dynamic growth, a low interest rate and high inflation. The potential for conflict between Central Bank and government may be further escalated by the fact that in the current uncertain situation the Central Bank must further improve its credibility in the eyes of investors (i.e., it will continue to urge the restructuring of social security systems) while the unpopular government will make every effort to regain the confidence of the population.
Risk Warning, 22th of April, 2008.

Péter Kiss, head of the Prime Minister's Office criticized the Central Bank, saying the Hungarian economy should not be strained any further by monetary tightening. Kiss said that countries with slow growth and a strong national currency tend to cut rates rather than raise them, adding that the high base rate is to be blamed for the strong forint.
23th of May, 2008.

After the Central Bank raised the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 8.50%, Albert Molnár, a Socialist member of the Parliament's Budget Committee said the rate hike was damaging, costly and groundless.

The activity of the Hungarian Guard increases risks concerning relations with neighbouring countries.
Risk Warning, 12th of December, 2008.

The Slovak Foreign Ministry claimed in a statement that (…) Hungary is trying to avoid the discussion of issues such as the legal status of its Slovak minorities and the extreme nationalism and racism of the far-right Hungarian Guard.